This is something I've been mulling over in recent weeks. I'd sort of loosely set my target weight at 125 (I am just under 5'4"...mesomorph with some endomorph tendencies, medium-boned, nearly 40), as years ago (pre-running/cycling) I got down to 124 for about a week. I looked great and wouldn't have wanted to be slimmer, but was not particularly fit/muscular. I'm thinking my body fat was probably in the 22% range.
The photo at right was me about 11#s above my smallest weight. I was 135#s and had lost 50#s from my heaviest non-pregnant weight.
I found some useful resources recently that have me rethinking my goal weight...and have me believing my goal weight is not so far away. Our scale has me at 25.5%...and even though body fat scales are notorious for being way off, I think ours is probably not that inaccurate, based upon these graphics:
25ish% looks about spot-on. Granted, the people photographed appear to have better skin-tone and I don't see a lot of evidence of pregnancy/stretch-marks/c-section scars -- It would be interesting to see illustrations that use models in their 30s and 40s with a rugrat or two to illustrate the visual effect of skin sag with age and "abuse." But the relative amount of padding looks like what I see in the mirror.
So I plugged my #s into this calculator and it spits out 20% body fat at 132#s and 18% at 129#s. This assumes I lose no muscle mass. I'd have to get down to 15.5% body fat to weigh 125#s! So totally not gonna happen, nor would I want to be that lean. 18% sounds far better for my bones and overall body type. I'm clearly hauling around a lot more muscle now than I was in that top photo. I'm expecting to be about 5#s heavier at that same clothing size. 5#s of muscle is so full of WIN!
In reality I will likely lose *some* muscle mass if I continue to eat enough of a deficit to lose weight and don't increase my current activity, BUT I will also be ramping my workouts back up in coming months as my wrist heals and I can log more miles on the bike (including outdoors), so come Summer the muscle mass will be increasing. Especially if I pause the weight loss for the competitive running and cycling months.
I also put together a photographic journal page to visually document my progress.